Your first premise is the data is incomplete. Please show me why you think the data is incomplete or off in the Imperial College paper. Assuming the data is somehow incomplete, what is the proof that the data can't be analyzed without producing wildly varying results.
Surely the fact my previous link provides a different 'understanding' is enough to suggest that present data is incomplete and thus open to interpretation. How would you prove your somewhat pessimistic view is any less valid than mine?
According to this book, publish by Jason W. Osborne. (Associate Provost and Dean of the Graduate School at Clemson University in Clemson, South Carolina, Professor of Applied Statistics in the Department of Mathematical Sciences), data is capable of being analyzed in a variety of ways even if it is incomplete.
Argumentum ad verecundiam. As I said at the outset, did not 'experts' once claim there would be huge death tolls associated with AIDS and New Variant CJD?
You also stated, that:
'It may be 'uneducated', but it's no more reckless than 'educated' claims based upon incomplete data.'
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but opinion would go further if could show me some factual/scientific proof of anything that you posted now or earlier.
And again you are creating a circular argument. You presuppose the report you refer is correct without proffering proof that it is indeed so. Again, where is your proof of your opinion being any more valid than mine?
Maybe we will have to agree to disagree, but I would like to understand better how you came to your opinion.
Unnecessary panic buying and empty supermarket shelves (aided, in my opinion, by some irresponsible reporting - particularly from the BBC) is clear evidence of our now being fully aware of COVID-19. But just how long has the virus been abroad - particularly in the UK?
Prior to Christmas I was struck down by a 'bug' the symptoms of which now sounding eerily familiar: a hacking cough, fever, shortage of breath and plain exhaustion. Sleep was at something of a premium, I couldn't lie down (to do so was to bring on severe coughing fits) so for a little over two weeks I just made do with an hour or two's worth of dozing, half propped up in the corner of a couch.
Whether or not it was COVID I have no idea. I didn't seek medical attention, I, like others I have since spoken to, merely assumed it to be yet another strain of flu - albeit a particularly nasty one. If, on the other hand, it was COVID, how can anyone make an accurate assessment of mortality rates when the length of time its been in 'the open' and the number of people affected, remains unknown?
Well, even though it has a higher fatality rate, Ebola is not that dangerous. It runs too quickly. It may kill a whole village, but it does it so quickly that the risk of spreading the infection outside that community is pretty low
COVID-19 has been called 8-35 times as contagious as influenza. That's the reason. Also, there are two variants and it has mutated since December. The first mutation was when it jumped from a non-human to a human, so we have no natural or acquired defense against it.
My mechanic told me, "I couldn't repair your brakes, so I made your horn louder."
I will say this...listen to the medical professionals...when allowed to speak they have been great....also listen to Gov Cuomo he has been reasonable...
Jack Rainey - Full disclosure...reformed integrator, now mid-Atlantic manufacturers rep for: Integra, Paradigm, Anthem, Parasound, Atlona, LG TV's and Metra Home Theater...among others
Surely the fact my previous link provides a different 'understanding' is enough to suggest that present data is incomplete and thus open to interpretation. How would you prove your somewhat pessimistic view is any less valid than mine?
You are comparing an internet article by one doctor John Ioannidis to research paper done by a world class university. These are the researchers that contributed to the research paper (Neil M Ferguson, Daniel Laydon, Gemma Nedjati-Gilani, Natsuko Imai, Kylie Ainslie, Marc Baguelin, Sangeeta Bhatia, Adhiratha Boonyasiri, Zulma Cucunubá, Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg, Amy Dighe, Ilaria Dorigatti, Han Fu, Katy Gaythorpe, Will Green, Arran Hamlet, Wes Hinsley, Lucy C Okell, Sabine van Elsland, Hayley Thompson, Robert Verity, Erik Volz, Haowei Wang, Yuanrong Wang, Patrick GT Walker, Caroline Walters, Peter Winskill, Charles Whittaker, Christl A Donnelly, Steven Riley, Azra C Ghani.)
Your own Dr Anthony Fauci, who has been described as the US leading expert on infectious diseases, echo's many of sentiments of the research paper above.
Argumentum ad verecundiam. As I said at the outset, did not 'experts' once claim there would be huge death tolls associated with AIDS and New Variant CJD?
Sure if you say so, I not going argue whether experts are infallible or not. Obviously, nobody is infallible.
And again you are creating a circular argument. You presuppose the report you refer is correct without proffering proof that it is indeed so. Again, where is your proof of your opinion being any more valid than mine?
I broke down your argument and offered evidence to show that even if data is incomplete, it can still be analyzed in a useful way. I do understand statistics / modeling better than most people, it was my minor in University. Does it make me any sort of expert, absolutely not. It does allow me to understand how statistics work and probably more importantly how they don't work better than most people though. This is why I called out the 1% infection rate in Ioannidis article, it is bad science.
Unnecessary panic buying and empty supermarket shelves (aided, in my opinion, by some irresponsible reporting - particularly from the BBC) is clear evidence of our now being fully aware of COVID-19. But just how long has the virus been abroad - particularly in the UK?
Prior to Christmas I was struck down by a 'bug' the symptoms of which now sounding eerily familiar: a hacking cough, fever, shortage of breath and plain exhaustion. Sleep was at something of a premium, I couldn't lie down (to do so was to bring on severe coughing fits) so for a little over two weeks I just made do with an hour or two's worth of dozing, half propped up in the corner of a couch.
Whether or not it was COVID I have no idea. I didn't seek medical attention, I, like others I have since spoken to, merely assumed it to be yet another strain of flu - albeit a particularly nasty one. If, on the other hand, it was COVID, how can anyone make an accurate assessment of mortality rates when the length of time its been in 'the open' and the number of people affected, remains unknown?
Sorry to hear this. Nobody absolutely knows when Covid landed in North America, but given the delayed time from infection to full blown symptoms you would had to been infected sometime 2nd or 3rd week of December. The first known case in the US was Jan 20 from a person who had just flown back from Wuhan. So it would seem to be very unlikely.
You described my view as 'somewhat pessimistic'. I would like to think it is much more 'pragmatic' than pessimistic.
The reason I post here, is that I think many people are ignoring this or are in denial about the reality. I am not trying to panic people, I am trying to convince them to take this serious because of the potential consequences. There is a reason to why many Governments are taking pretty extreme measures to slow the spread of this. One only has to look at what Italy is going through to understand what a potential tragedy this can be.
Give it a rest. I already hear all this shit on TV all day long.
Corona has been in the US well before the January time frame, more like late August/early September. Doctors did not know what it was but chalked it up to the flu.
The paranoia is out of control and you guys aren't helping it.
Give it a rest. I already hear all this shit on TV all day long.
Corona has been in the US well before the January time frame, more like late August/early September. Doctors did not know what it was but chalked it up to the flu.
The paranoia is out of control and you guys aren't helping it.
As for the time line, you also have to believe the Chinese Gov't was not saying anything for the first cases, and even after they determined what type of virus it was, things were probably kept quiet. It wasn't until they realized it was getting away from them and spreading quickly that they felt the need to let the world know something was up in Wuhan. Which means the typical Dec/Jan flu season many of us see in the north might very well have had a mix of regular flu and Corona flu bugs. I know I got the flu in Jan and it was the worst I had ever experienced. I was home in bed for three days. Never been hit like that before.
Does anyone know if COVID-19 antibodies can be detected? If so, and if there are any blood samples from fall 2019, this might help answer the question of exactly when and where COVID-19 landed.
Does anyone know if COVID-19 antibodies can be detected? If so, and if there are any blood samples from fall 2019, this might help answer the question of exactly when and where COVID-19 landed.
According to Dr John Campbell an antibody test is very close, only days away. Not sure if older blood samples can used with the test or not.
He talked about this today:
t=547s
cue to 6:20 for the antigen / antibody testing
If you can, watch the whole video, good info here.
This thread has been locked. Replies are not allowed at this time.
Please read the following: Unsolicited commercial advertisements are absolutely not permitted on this forum. Other private buy & sell messages should be posted to our Marketplace. For information on how to advertise your service or product click here. Remote Central reserves the right to remove or modify any post that is deemed inappropriate.
