On March 19, 2020 at 22:56, cupofjoe said...
Your first premise is the data is incomplete. Please show me why you think the data is incomplete or off in the Imperial College paper. Assuming the data is somehow incomplete, what is the proof that the data can't be analyzed without producing wildly varying results.
Surely the fact my previous link provides a different 'understanding' is enough to suggest that present data is incomplete and thus open to interpretation. How would you prove your somewhat pessimistic view is any less valid than mine?
According to this book, publish by Jason W. Osborne. (Associate Provost and Dean of the Graduate School at Clemson University in Clemson, South Carolina, Professor of Applied Statistics in the Department of Mathematical Sciences), data is capable of being analyzed in a variety of ways even if it is incomplete.
[Link: sagepub.com]Argumentum ad verecundiam. As I said at the outset, did not 'experts' once claim there would be huge death tolls associated with AIDS and New Variant CJD?
You also stated, that:
'It may be 'uneducated', but it's no more reckless than 'educated' claims based upon incomplete data.'
Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but opinion would go further if could show me some factual/scientific proof of anything that you posted now or earlier.
And again you are creating a circular argument. You presuppose the report you refer is correct without proffering proof that it is indeed so. Again, where is your proof of your opinion being any more valid than mine?
Maybe we will have to agree to disagree, but I would like to understand better how you came to your opinion.
Unnecessary panic buying and empty supermarket shelves (aided, in my opinion, by some irresponsible reporting - particularly from the BBC) is clear evidence of our now being fully aware of COVID-19. But just how long has the virus been abroad - particularly in the UK?
Prior to Christmas I was struck down by a 'bug' the symptoms of which now sounding eerily familiar: a hacking cough, fever, shortage of breath and plain exhaustion. Sleep was at something of a premium, I couldn't lie down (to do so was to bring on severe coughing fits) so for a little over two weeks I just made do with an hour or two's worth of dozing, half propped up in the corner of a couch.
Whether or not it was COVID I have no idea. I didn't seek medical attention, I, like others I have since spoken to, merely assumed it to be yet another strain of flu - albeit a particularly nasty one. If, on the other hand, it was COVID, how can anyone make an accurate assessment of mortality rates when the length of time its been in 'the open' and the number of people affected, remains unknown?
