Of course, when people are involved, it's worse than that.
We decide we don't like our places burning down, so we create fired departments. Of course, their mission is not to control, ahead of time, the fires that WILL come.

Then, after a few years and places not burning, people do the equivalent of building in the flood plain: they build in places that used to burn every five to ten years. Of course nobody's telling them to expect fires.

And the fire departments work like HELL to contain every fire.

Et cetera.