In an effort to support this opinion, COJ linked to the non-peer reviewed study by Imperial College which claimed some rather startling mortality rates for both the UK and US. I responded by suggesting that it was too soon to rush to judgement, citing previous examples of 'expert opinion' being so far wide of the mark they would now be considered risible.

Ignoring this, the undeterred COJ insisted on the report's veracity citing the 'prestige' of the issuing authority, and latterly the number of its authors. However, as the more astute would appreciate, these are fallacious arguments. It matters not where a report is written, or by how many people (the glib response would be to cite the oft mention Einstein anecdote of only one being sufficient). The primary consideration for a report's veracity (some would argue the only consideration) is the quality of the data upon which it is based.

In response to COJ's comments, I linked to an essay by Dr. John Ionnidis, which raised exactly that point: that the presently available data was too scare and of too poor a quality make any valid judgement - particularly when used as a driver of policy. COJ's answer was to dismiss these concerns, misrepresent the opinion of Dr. Ionnidis, repeat the assertions about the Imperial College report (and its voluminous number of authors), and cite its support by Dr. Anthony Fauci. In doing so, though, he inadvertently highlighted my concern about assumptions (of which the Imperial College report makes many) leading to false conclusions and thus bad decision making.

Even though I twice made specific mention of the UK, COJ failed to check my profile and merely assumed me to be American - "Your own Dr Anthony Fauci..." In doing so COJ has failed to appreciate the full ramifications of my illness prior to Christmas and its relation to infection reports and thus mortality rates.

N.B. Reports of problems in China first emerged around mid-December, though it wasn't until the 31st December that China officially informed WHO of there being a problem. It was also mid-December that my previously reported symptoms first developed - so it's more than likely that even if I did seek medical attention they would have been dismissed as flu. It may also be of interest to note that my wife's symptoms (a severe sore throat, nausea and vomiting) were considered, by the G.P. she saw, to be tonsillitis, though such symptoms are now also considered indicators of COVID infection.

As neither I, my wife or son have been tested, the question of what we had remains moot (though I remain convinced it was indeed COVID). My previous comment thus remains. How can any valid judgement of infection/mortality rates (particularly for the UK) be made when routine testing is not being undertaken and its first appearance in the UK remains unknown?

Having now cast his considerable analytical mind to the subject, Nic Lewis also remain unconvinced by the Imperial College study.

[Link: nicholaslewis.org]