I don't know enough to weigh in on either side, but one thing I will throw out there is that alot of people have gone out of business betting against Microsoft. About 13 years ago I when I was first starting out in the computer networking field I was fortunate enough to see the writing on the wall and became a Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer even though I was already certified for Novell Netware which was a much superior network operating system that had the majority of the market share. I haven't had a chance to work on a Novell server since Y2K compliance checks.
Microsoft has proven over and over that you don't have to have the best product, or the first product to market or ..., they can bully thier way in to a market they want to own.

Alot of people scoffed when they said they were entering the game console market too.