And how many Blu-Ray disks is little Jimmy going to buy, or is his pocket money going to be spent on games?

As I said above, players do not maketh a format - Media quality, availability & price does!

Look at UMD, MiniDisc, DVD-A and SACD for examples of failed formats that had lots of hardware backers (and even dual format players in the case of SACD/DVD-A)

Most of the manufacturers above also have HD-DVD drives in the pipeline so no big deal.

I'm backing HD-DVD, but then I backed Betamax, MiniDisc, Laserdisc and SACD :(