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Original thread:
Post 73 made on Thursday February 13, 2020 at 21:02
Munson
Long Time Member
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January 2003
499
I usually avoid getting involved in these discussions but thought I would through in my two cents.

I read a book a few years ago that I think puts some insite into this, it was called The Innovator's Dilemma by Clayton M Christensen. This book was first published in 1997 and talked about disruptive technologies that changed industries in the past and talked about industries that would be affected in the future. A good thing about reading a book that is 23 years old is that you can see if the predictions it made actually happened, and many if not most of them did.

This book talks about established company's and how their product improves at a faster rate than what their clients needs do. Then it talks about new disruptive technologies that when introduced do not meet the minimum client needs, but over time begin to meet their needs. At the same time established companies continue to improve, but because the new technologies now meet clients needs they have to move up market.

One example they gave was drag line excavators as the established technology with hydraulic powered excavators as the disruptive technology. At first hydraulic excavators were not powerful enough to anything but small jobs, but as they gain power they began taking over the larger jobs. This pushed the drag line excavators up market, to the point now where they are only used on large mining projects, hydraulics have replaced drag lines in most applications. The companies that embraced hydraulics thrived and only a few drag line companies still exist.

I think we are in a period of change. New disruptive technologies are challenging us and are changing the way we do things. We need to adaptive to survive. Just a couple years ago I still thought that there will always be a need for control systems, and in some sense there will be, but I have found that even some our our largest project are starting to question some of the technologies we install. They are commenting on the amount of money they spend and how often they have to upgrade.

I have seen the change from $5,000 touch panels to iPads that can be updated for less then the cost of replacing the batteries of the older remotes. I agree that there are some challenges to using iPads, but the cost difference is substantial. Also the change from $20,000 Kaliedescape systems to $200 AppleTV's.

Yes there will always be some work, but how much. I just went into a small higher end stereo shop in my area a couple weeks ago. It was nice talking to someone else still passionate about this product. He is a small one man shop and is a far cry from the large high end store that used to be in our area that everyone knew about and that did millions of dollars a year in sales.

Even in my own house I see changes. In the Living room I use the cable box, but am the only one in the house that uses it. My kids and even my wife are either watching their phones or if the TV is on using the AppleTV remote which turns the TV on, switches to the correct input, and also adjusts the volume, no need for an additional universal remote, even though I have a Control4 remote.

In short no matter how much we argue this industry will change, will we change with it? Product will get cheaper, and margins will be eroded. We can deal with it and try to find a way to make money from it, or look for new avenues to make money.

Here is a link of the author, and about 11 minutes in he starts to talk about this theory. Can be a little boring, but worth watching as he gets into the AV industry.


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