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Original thread:
Post 51 made on Sunday September 8, 2019 at 15:53
djy
RC Moderator
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August 2001
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On September 8, 2019 at 12:52, Anthony said...
Can't talk for davidcasemore but

1) the Earth is closest to the sun in Jan at 146 million km the Earth is farthest from the sun in July at 152 million km yet in January it might be -30oC
and in July much warmer and +30.

does that mean
a) the distance numbers are wrong and we are closer in July then January?
b) the temperature numbers are wrong in Montreal in January it is warmer then July?
c) the sun is cold and the farther we are the warmer it is?
d) bad partial assumptions and it misses the reality
---- a) because of the distance July is colder then it would other wise be and January is warmer then it would otherwise be
---- b) Earths Axis means that in Jan then days are shorter and less of the suns rays reach Montreal compared to July.

Myopic analysis always leads to fallacious conclusions.

2) like DJY agreed CO2 is not the only greenhouse gas , so any real analysis should look at all of them. As well as all other things that could have an effect

3) they would never "coincide", that does not mean there is no cause and effect. For example my friend has a cottage (chalet, cabin... second house in the country). In the fall he winterizes it ( shuts the water valves and empties all the pipes). But since it is near a hill some times he leaves his place around 9:30 am, gets there around 10:30, lights the fire in the fireplace, loads it with logs and by 11:30 he is out of there to do a 1/2 day skiing, gets back around 7 PM throws in some logs and re-lights the fire place. At 11:00 AM is it freezing in the home (colder then outside) even though there is a huge fire in the fireplace? absolutely at 7:00 PM when he gets back is it toasty warm even though there is no fire in the fire place? Does it still make sense to say the house warming is caused by the fire in the fire place? absolutely it just takes time and so the two won't coincide they will be shifted.

"Myopic analysis always leads to fallacious conclusions."

As does simplistic analysis.

The five important greenhouse gases Water Vapour, Carbon Dioxide, Ozone, Methane and Nitrous Oxide are discussed by physicist William van Wijngaarden in the following video.



And the following image highlights the importance of Water Vapour and the very limited effect of Methane.


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